A Physical Perspective On The 1998 Regime Shift
In The North Pacific
Current Status of Accomplishment or Milestone: Frank Schwing attended the 2001 Coastal Ocean Salmon Ecosystem Event, in Nanaimo, BC Canada, where he gave the lead oral presentation on "The 1998 regime shift in the northeast Pacific: a physical perspective".
Background: The growing evidence for a major climate regime shift in 1998 is attracting increasing attention from oceanographers and fisheries scientists. Previous regime shifts, for example 1976, have corresponded to rapid changes in many marine fish populations, including west coast and Alaska salmon stocks.
Purpose of Activity/Goal of Project: The organizers of the 2001 salmon ecosystem workshop wanted an overview talk on the recent regime shift to kick off the workshop and stimulate the attendees to consider climate effects on fishery variability. They invited Frank Schwing, because of the reputation of PFEL in studying this relationship.
Description of Accomplishment and Significant Results: An overview of the 1998 regime shift and changes in the north Pacific, and the reasons for these changes, were presented. This talk set a tone for the entire workshop, and stimulated considerable external discussion. The meeting was attended by about 60 US and Canadian Federal fisheries scientists.
Significance of Accomplishment (e.g., to the Center, to Management, and to NMFS Strategic plan Goals): Because this was a meeting of most of the US and Canadian federal scientists working on ocean salmon problems, it was an ideal forum to discuss the 1998 regime shift and its implications for west coast and Alaska salmon stocks. It gave considerable exposure to the salmon research activities of the SWFSC. The dramatic declines in Alaska salmon catch since 1998 and the coincident and equally dramatic increase in the returns of many Pacific Northwest stocks indicates there is a probable link between the changing climate of the north Pacific and these populations. This has major implications for managing these stocks. It is recommended that the FMCs consider the role of climate variability in future discussions of salmon populations.
Problems: None.
Key Contact: Franklin B. Schwing (831-648-9034; Franklin.Schwing@noaa.gov).