Develop Indices Of Environmental Variability
To Understand And Mitigate Effects Of Natural Variations
On Endangered West Coast Stocks
Current Status of Accomplishment or Milestone: A new index of climate variability in the northeast Pacific (NEP) has been developed and tested, and is available on the PFEL Live Access Server. A manuscript on the index has been accepted for publication in a peer-review journal.
Background: Climate change is linked to major fluctuations in the populations of west coast salmon and other marine organisms. The signals of environmental change propagate from one region to another via atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections; thus the ocean in one region can be influenced by distant climate processes. A number of indices have been created to track climate events as they evolve and subsequently impact marine populations. We continue to develop and investigate reliable indices that explain environmental variability of significance to endangered west coast stocks.
Purpose of Activity/Goal of Project: Research and development on indices of environmental variability and climate change can develop reliable indicators of the mechanisms contributing to natural fluctuations in marine populations. These indices will be applied by researchers and managers to understand and mitigate effects of natural variations on endangered west coast stocks.
Description of Accomplishment and Significant Results: A new climate index, the extratropical Northern Oscillation Index (NOIx), identifies ENSO (El Niņo Southern Oscillation) events and climate regime shifts that are important in the North Pacific but not always conspicuous in traditional indices such as the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). It is well correlated with remote and local climate change events on ENSO and decadal scales, including a wide range of upper ocean changes in the NEP. These include winds, ocean temperature, precipitation, and salmon production. In particular, it appears to be well correlated with decadal shifts in west coast salmon catch. Climate processes known to have large physical and biological impacts on the NEP are well represented by the NOIx. This makes the NOIx very useful for monitoring and predicting climate changes and their biological consequences in the NEP. A manuscript describing the NOIx has been accepted for publication. The index is available on the PFEL web site, via the Live Access Server.
Significance of Accomplishment (e.g., to the Center, to Management, and to NMFS Strategic plan Goals): The encouraging relationships between the NOIx and a variety of physical and biological data series suggests this index may be a reliable indicator of climate fluctuations in the NEP, and may provide insights on the mechanisms linking the physical environment to marine resources and specifically endangered west coast salmon stocks.
Problems: None
Key Contact: Frank Schwing (831-648-9034, fschwing@pfeg.noaa.gov)